Years ago, one of my cooperative work jobs was researching and writing short pieces for Barron’s in New York, where my favorite uncle, Dave Loehwing, was the editor.
In addition to editing, he wrote the lead article for the paper occasionally, and he delighted in puncturing inflated stock prices.
He’s in heaven now, but he’s probably saying what’s all the fuss about NVIDIA? Yes, they’re cool, because they design the CPU and GPU chips that power AI platforms. In fact, their chips are produced here in Phoenix by Taiwan Semi.
A year or so ago, I decided to invest in AI in my self governing IRA retirement portfolio, which is sort of limited by my broker to ‘prudent man’ investments. We looked at NVIDIA, but it got ruled out as too speculative, so I bought C3AI instead. Didn’t do what I expected (go up), and I found that it had a rather squirrelly corporate organization as a non-profit which would have been ok if they’d distributed the profits on some basis, which they didn’t. Live and learn.
I bought QQQ after C3AI, and it’s done well (up about 45%), and minimizes the headaches at night.
I still use and like C3AI, and we used it to generate several courses for our Small Business Success School (www.bizsuccess.school) where we didn’t have anything unique to add to the subject, but at least our business customers can find lots of information they need to know in one place.
Now comes Google with their AI vehicle, called Gemini, which out of the box has laid an egg. But Google will get it right eventually; their first search engines were pretty primitive, too. They’ll get AI right eventually. We’re checking out Gemini.
At some point, Uncle Dave would say, the market has about as much as it can handle, and NVIDIA’s growth will slow down. The QQQ boys and girls will be on top of it. And one of my Wharton profs, Burton Malkiel, will be proved right on prices and multiples (again).
So, don’t pay nosebleed prices for NVIDIA.